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M94A2247.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2247
DOCN M94A2247
TI Changes in the age-at-onset of HIV infection among IVDU's in Italy.
DT 9412
AU Mariotto A; Verdecchia A; Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Roma, Italy.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):348 (abstract no. PC0626). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370328
AB OBJECTIVE: To shown how the age distribution of new HIV infections in
Italy changed with time. The result may early indicates that the course
of the epidemic among IVDU's is changing, possibly as the consequence of
preventive strategies and suggesting future ones. METHOD: An age, period
and cohort model is used to reconstruct the HIV epidemic among IVDU's in
Italy. It is an extension of the backcalculation method which includes
age-at-onset, the age specific incubation time distribution, therapy
effect, susceptible population and age-period interaction (cohort
effect). RESULTS: The estimated age-at-onset of the HIV infection among
IVDU's in Italy changed its peak during the course of the epidemic from
24 years in 1984, to 30 in 1986, 33 in 1988, and 35 years after 1990,
indicating an excess of risk of individuals born around 1955-1956
(generation effect). The dispersion of the age distribution
progressively reduced. The overall form of the epidemic curve was
estimated to decline in recent years after reaching its maximum in 1987
with 16,500 (13,700 males and 2,800 females) new HIV infections among
IVDU's (rate of 7.7 per 1,000) and is decreasing in all age groups: for
those aged < or = 25, 26-35 and > 35 years the peak was estimated to
occur, respectively, before 1987, between 1987-1989 and after 1989.
Among younger generations, who began the use of drugs at a later date,
the estimated risk of infection began to decrease earlier than for older
generations, already too involved with drugs, suggesting a change in
their risk behaviour. This can be interpreted as an important prevention
result. The results are also supported by evidence that the age
distribution of IVDU's with AIDS has also changed. CONCLUSIONS AND
DISCUSSION: Age-at-onset of HIV infection is of considerable public
health importance and the reconstruction of the HIV epidemic by age,
period and cohort gives a much deeper insight into the pattern of the
course of the epidemic. The value of health education, directed in
particular to teenagers at school, is greatly supported by our findings.
DE Adult Age Factors Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Female
Human HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL/*TRANSMISSION
HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS Italy/EPIDEMIOLOGY Male Population
Surveillance Risk Factors Substance Abuse,
Intravenous/COMPLICATIONS/*EPIDEMIOLOGY MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).